Draws and Fades: Expect fireworks, leaderboard shifts during marathon finish at Wyndham - PGA TOUR (2024)

A long day is in the books at the Wyndham Championship, and an even longer day awaits as the marathon continues to crown a champion.

The 156-man field continues to play catch-up at Sedgefield Country Club after remnants from Tropical Storm Debby soaked the Greensboro area and postponed the start of the opening round to Friday. Most of the field now has 36 holes in, with the cut line all but official at 3-under 137, but a handful of players were still on the course when play was suspended Saturday night because of darkness.

Round 3 will get underway at 7:50 a.m. ET, with the leaders teeing off at 9:40 a.m. and not re-grouping for Round 4. It means that overnight leader Matt Kuchar will headline the final group for each of the last two rounds as he looks to win his way back into the postseason, and he’ll be flanked by two of his nearest pursuers in Chad Ramey and Max Greyserman.

Updated odds to win Wyndham Championship (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

So with some hope still remaining for a Sunday finish with the Playoffs looming, and with everyone potentially staring at a 36-hole day in the Triad, how do things shape up from a handicapping perspective? Let’s take a look.

Aaron Rai (+700)

Rai has been heating up all summer, and let a few slip through his (gloved) fingers – notably the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he finished one shot short. But he’s working on what would be his fourth top-10 finish in his last five starts, the outlier being a rough week at The Open Championship, and this could be the situation that sees the Englishman get into the winner’s circle for the first time on the PGA TOUR.

Aaron Rai's interview after Round 2 of Wyndham Championship

Rai has been a sharpshooter from the fairways, leading the field in Strokes Gained: Approach through two rounds. He’s been above average (though not spectacular) with the putter, but I would rather back a ball-striker heading into a long day like this than someone like Chad Ramey who is essentially riding a hot putter through 36 holes. Rai will continue to create birdie chances on Sunday, and he’ll start the day just two shots back of Kuchar. Plenty of time to make a move, and he’ll be able to just plod along and know that the birdie chances will pile up. If he converts his fair share, he’ll be in the mix right to the bitter end.

Brendon Todd (+3300)

Let’s face it, things could get weird on Sunday. With no shuffling of the groups before Round 4, a player could get hot and make a move but still finish the tournament with several groups still to play. One player who could fit that mold is Todd, a veteran who counts among his prior wins a weather-disrupted triumph at Mayakoba that required a Monday finish.

Todd is T10 at 8 under, slowed largely by a three-hole stretch Friday from Nos. 8-10 where he was 3 over. But he’s among the more accurate players on TOUR off the tee, and he has finished inside the top 10 in two of the last three years here. He doesn’t always play well at Sedgefield, but he boasts a 66.25 final-round scoring average across the four times he has played he weekend. He’ll likely need to go deeper than 66 to get into the mix, but I like him as a flier option on a wide-open leaderboard like this.

Matt Kuchar and Cameron Young (+400)

Just throw them together at this point, albeit for different reasons. Kuchar is admirably trying to save his season, clearly motivated by the fact that he remains the only player to make the FedExCup Playoffs every year since its 2007 inception but needing a Hail Mary to keep the streak alive – even after a T3 at the 3M Open two weeks ago. The veteran grabbed a one-shot with consecutive 64s, having dropped only one shot all week, but like Ramey, he’s doing it largely on the greens: first in SG: Putting in Round 1, 13th in Round 2 and leading the field overall.

It's win or go home for Kuchar, who started the week outside the top 110 in points, but at age 46 a double loop may not suit him as well as some of the younger players in the field. Add in that he hasn’t won in more than five years and I’m just not sold that his tee-to-green game will hold up to allow his putter to carry him back into the winner’s circle. Like Hossler overnight, I think Kuchar is a fade from the pole position.

As for Young, I’m just going to be late on him. The units I’m saving by not expecting him to break through, especially at such short odds, will more than outweigh any lost profits when and if he gets the job done. Now with seven runner-up finishes, most recently at the Valspar Championship when he was outdueled by Peter Malnati, Young just seems to find more and more creative ways to grab the silver medal. At No. 24 he’s the highest-ranked player on the leaderboard, a big factor for his short price, and he’s familiar with the area after playing at Wake Forest. He’s one shot back after a 62 and may well win, but I think I’m likely saving myself an evening of frustrated viewing by leaving him off the in-play card.

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