Drew Zeimetz on LinkedIn: This is the biggest mistake I see sports bettors make: Avoid this mistake… (2024)

Drew Zeimetz

Data Analyst at BCBSND | Data Enthusiast | SQL, Python, Tableau, Excel

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This is the biggest mistake I see sports bettors make:Avoid this mistake by understanding the numbers...Parlaying bets is the biggest mistake I see sports bettors make. According to University of Nevada’s Center for Gaming Research, sportsbooks earned an average of 5.7 cents for every dollar wagered on football. While Parlays earned an average of 32.1 cents per dollar!!!!I am a fan of the NFL, fantasy football, and sports betting but when I see people do parlays and try to explain to them why its a bad deal, I usually fail to convince them to stop.Parlays are very appealing to bettors!The appeal of parlays lies in their potential for big payouts from relatively small bets.People always go back to "It is only ${small number} to win ${large number}".What they do not account for is the probability of hitting all legs on a parlayHere is an example from the NFL this week:Rams: -125Browns: -135Broncos: -145This converts to 55.6%, 57.4%, and 59.2% respectively. So the probability of all events occurring is 18.893% according to the sportsbook who published these odds.BUT when I place a $10 parlay bet on these 3 legs, it is a payout of $42.95.So risk/reward is 10/42.95 which is 23.28%The odds of the event occurring are 18.893% according to the sports book but the odds you are getting for that bet are assuming this event occurs 5% more often. The odds of winning a parlay involving multiple teams or outcomes are much lower than winning a single bet, making it a less valuable option in terms of expected value, which is a measure of the average outcome.But the big payout number makes the bet more attractive to the better even though it is a significantly worse deal.Stop parlaying your bets!

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Lucas Gwartz

Business Intelligence & Marketing Strategy Professional | Proficiency in Data Analysis & Customer Insights

7mo

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Drew I completely agree. It doesn't make any sense to parlay bets, because the likelihood they all hit is very low. However, I think most people who bet know this, but enjoy the thrill of it potentially working out.

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